The high-stakes legal saga of Sean "Diddy" Combs has entered its most crucial phase. On Monday, the jury began deliberating in the federal sex trafficking and racketeering trial that could determine the music mogul’s future.
After weeks of intense testimony, graphic evidence, and emotional witness accounts, the jury—comprising 8 men and 4 women—was handed the case in a Manhattan courtroom. Now, it's up to them to decide whether Diddy is guilty of running what prosecutors describe as a decades-long criminal enterprise involving abuse, manipulation, and sex trafficking.
What the Jury’s Deciding
Diddy is facing five serious felony charges:
Racketeering conspiracy
Two counts of sex trafficking
Two counts of transporting individuals for prostitution
If convicted on all counts, he could face a life sentence.
The prosecution relied heavily on testimony from singer Cassie Ventura and another woman, referred to only as “Jane,” who described what they called “freak-offs”—allegedly coercive sex parties organized by Diddy. They also introduced disturbing video evidence of an alleged assault in a Los Angeles hotel.
Diddy's defense team pushed back hard, arguing that all sexual activity was consensual and part of an alternative lifestyle. They claimed the accusations were either exaggerated or driven by financial motives. Diddy did not testify in his own defense.
The Odds of a Presidential Pardon? Just 6%
While the jury decides his fate, speculation is swirling about whether Diddy could receive a presidential pardon—especially from Donald Trump, who recently signaled openness to pardoning certain high-profile figures.
According to prediction market Kalshi, there's a 6% chance that Diddy is pardoned by the end of this year. That’s based on real-money bets placed by traders analyzing legal, political, and social dynamics.
To put it in perspective:
Kalshi’s contract for a Diddy pardon in Trump’s first 100 days of a potential second term is trading at 5 cents, implying just a 5% probability.
Other controversial figures like Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht are trading at much higher odds—over 70%—for a potential Trump pardon.
So, while the idea of a Diddy pardon makes headlines, market consensus says it’s highly unlikely in 2025.
What Happens Next?
Jury deliberations: There’s no set timeline. The jurors will review evidence, weigh testimony, and must unanimously agree on each charge.
Sentencing: If convicted, sentencing would follow within weeks. Prosecutors are expected to push for a lengthy term.
Civil lawsuits: Regardless of the trial’s outcome or a potential pardon, Diddy still faces multiple civil suits tied to sexual assault allegations—and presidential pardons don’t protect against those.
Final Thoughts
As the jury begins weighing the evidence, Diddy’s future hangs in the balance. The trial has already rocked the entertainment industry, and the outcome could have major ripple effects for years to come.
For now, all eyes are on the Manhattan courtroom—and on Kalshi, where just 6% of traders believe the former Bad Boy CEO walks free thanks to a presidential pardon this year.
Stay tuned—we'll be watching.
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